How to bet on 49ers vs. Colts, Washington vs. Packers, and a killer $10 parlay that will pay you $702.
With streaks, the thing is, you never want to talk about them. You don’t want to jinx a good one, stopping it in its tracks. You also don’t want to load up the bad mojo on a bad one. Losing streaks need no help.
But I’m going to break that cardinal sports superstition rule, here a week from Halloween, to talk about my current streak of missing my upset pick. I started the year 4-0, as regular readers would know and, again, kept that fact to myself. Picking a “shocking upset” is delicate work, like trying to disarm a bomb or giving a cat a pill. You could easily lose an eye.
First off, you can’t look at a -1 line and call that an upset. Frankly, a 3-point dog winning outright is probably pushing it. No, if you’re really going for the shocker, and you shouldn’t unless you’ve lubed up properly, you need that -3.5 or better, via the NFL Week 7 betting odds at MaximBet.
I’m feeling good about this week. Good enough to risk the jinx, the cat blowing up and losing a pinky in a shocker-related incident.
When I mention the Washington Football Team, what’s the first thing you think about? Ok, that was a bad question, because you can’t really say the first thing you think, since it’s the team’s old nickname and logo and it’s weird that it took until the year 2020 to stop saying that out loud.
How about the next thing? Ok, again, bad question, because Daniel Snyder is obviously an abysmal owner and the team is currently mired under multiple harassment scandals that, ironically, got a guy that works for another franchise fired.
I’ll stop asking and just tell you what I’m looking for. The WFT has a bad defense. Not just bad, maybe historically awful. And this unit was supposed to be a strength this season, but, over the last five weeks, they’ve surrendered 29, 43, 30, 33 and 31 points.
Washington has already folded the cards on its present quarterbacks, according to the rumor mill, with the chance to acquire Tua Tagovailoa from the Miami Dolphins the minute Deshaun Watson takes his talents to South Beach.
Now they’re traveling to Green Bay to face a Packers team with Aaron Rodgers claiming paternity over every losing franchise like he’s sitting between two 300-hundred-pound women with five teeth between them on an episode of Maury.
Take the Pack and the points.
Carolina Panthers (-3) at New York Giants
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins
With our “NFL in the UK” excursions out of the way, the full brunt of lackluster football will be played on our own hallowed shores. And when you think lackluster, you think of the Atlanta Falcons. They’re coming off a bye and traveling to Miami to face a Dolphins team that has all but loaded up Tagovailoa’s U-Haul for him and pulled up Google maps on his phone.
Over the last three weeks, Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones have combined to throw 10 interceptions and lose a fumble each. I’m no math expert, but that’s 12 turnovers between these two guys over a 21-day span. You’ll not be shocked to learn, those all came in losses for their respective teams.
I don’t trust either of these “favorites” to cover, so take the Falcons moneyline (-140) and/or the Panthers moneyline (-155).
Rookie Trey Lance got hurt, because some 49er fan apparently made a wish that cursed an idol Peter found in Hawaii on The Brady Bunch at some point, so that just happens every time a guy moves under center in San Fran now. As such, Jimmy Garoppolo, fresh from a leg injury of his own, is expected to start. Offensive tackle Trent Williams is also banged up.
Meanwhile, Carson Wentz of the Indianapolis Colts finally looks healthy. In fact, he was healthy enough to claim the Pro Football Focus Offensive Player of the Week award for his performance in a 31-3 win over the Houston Texans. Wentz has thrown 144 consecutive passes without a pick, leading the NFL, and is behind only the Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford in completed 40+ yard passes this season.
Take the Colts at +4.
Yo! He’d have you all unravel at the sound of screams, but the Revolution is comin’. The have-nots are gonna win this thanks to laying a Hamilton on a nifty little four-team parlay.
As we do, we’re going to take the moneyline from an upset we already like, in this case Colts (+175) and we’re going to use it as a foundation with which to fill a big cartoon bag full of money.
With that, we’re going to add the Cincinnati Bengals (+230), the Tennessee Titans (+205) and the Seattle Seahawks (+195).
I’ll admit, this is a risky one, but there wasn’t a lot to choose from in Week 7. Cincy has dropped five straight games to the Baltimore Ravens, but all streaks have to end sometime. Maybe the fact that I’ve brought it up is enough to kill it. Let’s use the jinx to our advantage.
As for the Titans knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs? KC has surrendered at least 30 to every good team they’ve faced this season and Derrick Henry is a Madden cheat code. Nobody’s stopped him yet and the Chiefs’ tissue paper defense isn’t likely to be the first to do it.
The Seahawks, with Geno Smith, nearly knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road last week. Now they’re facing Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints at home on Monday Night Football? Could this be the legendary Geno vs. Jameis quarterback duel we’ll be telling our grandchildren about? Unlikely, but we’ll watch anyway.
Here’s why you risk it.
A $10 parlay win on these four teams pays $702.
Adam Greene is @TheFirstMan on Twitter.
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